For years, Cuban dissidents say, the authorities' message to them has been the same: Sure, you can leave the country. Just don't expect us to let you come back. Now, prominent and outspoken government opponents say they've been told they can come and go freely under a new law that eliminated decades-old travel restrictions on nearly all islanders.
It's a calculated risk that potentially enables the dissidents to become high-profile ambassadors for change in the communist-run country, traveling abroad to accept awards and slamming the government back home in speeches to foreign parliaments. At the same time, it blunts one of their main criticisms of Cuba's human rights record, that it effectively held them and others hostage by restricting their movement.
"Previously the policy was just to get them out of the country, which really, really did work for the maintenance of the Castro government," said Ann Louise Bardach, a longtime Cuba analyst and author of "Cuba Confidential." "But if they are allowing them to come back, we are looking at a game changer of sorts because that could usher in the first embryonic state of some democratic process," Bardach said. "If people can go abroad, criticize the government and return, that's a new day in Cuba."
The government faces some of the same pluses and minuses with all Cubans traveling abroad, showing that it is being more open by letting its citizens leave more easily, but taking the risk that some won't come back. Travelers seeing the world for the first time are apt to experience things that could give them cause to clamor for more freedoms or material goods back home, or it could make them more grateful for basic guarantees in Cuba like free health care.
Government officials' problem with dissidents' travel is essentially the opposite of their concerns about other Cubans: The worry that young, talented, ambitious and highly educated islanders will seek their fortunes elsewhere. But always-cautious Cuba surely feels it will win this gamble as well.
The law contains provisions encouraging Cubans to return by letting them stay overseas longer while still retaining the right to come back, hopefully pumping money into the struggling economy through remittances and any savings brought home. And a slight migratory outflow could ease social pressure, with the most discontent people opting not to return.
"This is a calculated risk, but they obviously feel that they can endure," Bardach said. "Otherwise this would not be something that would be done. Nothing happens fast in Cuba."
據古巴異議人士說，古巴當局多年來對他們放的話總是：對，你們可以出國，但千萬不要指望我們會讓你回來。現在，有話直說的重量級古巴政府反對者說，他們得到通知，一項新法律廢除了古巴行之數十年，幾乎適用於所有古巴人的旅遊限制；在此一新法律下，他們可以來去自如。
這經過評估的風險有可能使異議人士成為這個共產國家廣受注目的轉變大使，使他們得以出國接受頒獎，同時在外國的國會殿堂中抨擊古巴政府。但此舉也削弱了他們對古巴政府人權紀錄的主要批評之一，即古巴政府限制了他們的行動自由，並實質上挾持了他們 。
長期分析古巴政情兼《古巴機密》一書的作者安路薏斯巴爾達克說：「過去的政策是把他們趕出國，且此一政策實際上對維護卡斯楚政府大有助益。但假如古巴當局讓他們返國，那我們將看到某種使局面出現轉變的因素，因為這有可能導入某些民主進程的初始狀態。」她說：「假如古巴人可以出國，在批評政府之後返國，那相當於古巴新的一天。」
古巴人出國，古巴政府也要面對同樣的利弊，一方面讓國人比較容易出國，以便給人比較開放的印象，但也得冒風險，就是有些人出國之後就不回來了。初次出國看看這個世界的人很可能會經歷到一些事情，促使他們要求國內有更大的自由和更多的物質商品供應，但也可能讓他們對古巴國內的一些基本保障──如免費健保等──滿懷感恩。
政府官員在容許異議人士出國方面的問題，基本上是和他們對其他古巴人的關注相反的：他們擔心年輕有才華、同時也有雄心，受過高等教育的年輕人會到別的地方尋覓出路。但一向審慎的古巴肯定這場豪賭他們也會贏。
前述法律的條文包括容許古巴人出國停留較長時間，同時保留返國的權利，以鼓勵他們返國，希望透過他們的匯款和帶回國內的儲蓄為掙扎中的經濟注入資金。小規模的移民國外，讓最感到不滿的人自行選擇不回來，也可以緩和社會壓力。
巴爾達克說：「這是經過評估的風險，但他們顯然認為這是可以承受的，否則這是他們不會幹的事。在古巴，沒有一樣事情會迅速發生的。」
全通翻譯引用 http://chinapost.com.tw/guidepost/topics/default.asp?id=3319&pre=1&sub=7
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