Rise of the RMB
Late last year, with the Bo Xilai scandal dominating Chinese politics and uncertainty remaining over the PRC's leadership transition, many analysts expected significant depreciation of the Chinese yuan. This was a no-brainer because the trend has been for the RMB to drop in these situations. There was also the added pressure on Chinese exporters who were struggling in the face of a global slowdown.
But then something funny happened. Bo's disgrace was completed with his ejection from the National People's Congress, and Xi Jinping's ascent to the presidency was given the thumbs up. Suddenly there was a climate of stability, and the Chinese yuan soared to a 19-year high of 6.238 to the U.S. dollar. The resolution of the political uncertainties was cited as the prime mover.
