全通翻譯/翻譯社

Rise of the RMB

Late last year, with the Bo Xilai scandal dominating Chinese politics and uncertainty remaining over the PRC's leadership transition, many analysts expected significant depreciation of the Chinese yuan. This was a no-brainer because the trend has been for the RMB to drop in these situations. There was also the added pressure on Chinese exporters who were struggling in the face of a global slowdown.

But then something funny happened. Bo's disgrace was completed with his ejection from the National People's Congress, and Xi Jinping's ascent to the presidency was given the thumbs up. Suddenly there was a climate of stability, and the Chinese yuan soared to a 19-year high of 6.238 to the U.S. dollar. The resolution of the political uncertainties was cited as the prime mover.

Of course, other factors were at play and, while the Renminbi has not hit the giddy heights of last October, it has remained buoyant through a mix of government and market forces. Firstly, the administration's decision to double the daily trading band against the greenback to 1 percent is a major step toward the liberalization of China's exchange-rate regime. There is talk of the band being further widened. Offshore trading, which has a wider band than that dictated by the government, is also having a big say in the yuan's direction. The internationalization of the currency has meant that Chinese traders typically offer 3-percent discounts on RMB transactions, helping trade partners mitigate foreign exchange risk.

人民幣大躍進

去年年底，由於薄熙來的醜聞主宰中國政界以及領導人 交接所留待的不確定性，許多分析師預期人民幣會大幅貶值。 毫無疑問，這些情況會讓人民幣呈現下跌的趨勢。中國出口商 在面臨全球經濟成長趨緩時的掙扎也增添了壓力。

然而奇怪的事情發生了。薄熙來的不光采事件在他被全 國人民代表大會逐出後落幕，習近平晉升為最高領導人則搏 得了滿堂采。局勢突然穩定，人民幣飆升至 6.238 元兌 1 美 元的 19 年新高。政治不確定性的解除被指為主要驅動因素。

當然，其他因素也有影響力，當人民幣還未衝到去年十 月的驚人新高時，就因幾股政府和市場勢力而維持著看漲的 態勢。首先，中國政府決定將美元兌換的每日交易波動區間 加倍至 1%，這是邁向解放中國匯率體系的一大步。有耳語指 出波動區間會再放寬。波動區間較中國政府所支配的更寬的 境外貿易，同樣對人民幣走向有極大的影響力。貨幣的國際 化代表中國貿易商在進行人民幣交易時一般會提供 3% 的折 扣，這能幫助貿易夥伴減輕外匯風險。

資料來源：biz 互動英語電子報