日本物理學家破解票房密碼
◎魏國金
Unlikely candidates for box office stardom, a team of Japanese physicists may soon be in high demand with moviemakers after devising a formula to predict how successful a film is likely to be.
雖然不太可能是票房明星的人選，然而一個日本物理學家團隊，在設計出一套預測影片賣座情形的公式後，或許很快就會讓電影製片人搶著要。
The team from Tottori University devised a set of mathematical models that measure how much money was spent on advertising before a movie is released, over what period of time, and how much talk the film generated in social media.
來自鳥取大學的團隊，設計出一套計算電影上映前投注多少廣告資金、宣傳期多長以及在社群媒體上製造多少電影話題的數學模式。
Using the models, they predicted the popularity of a variety of blockbusters, including the Da Vinci Code, Spider Man 3 and Avatar, which they later compared to actual revenue generated.
利用該模式，他們預測多部風靡一時的鉅片，包括達文西密碼、蜘蛛人3與阿凡達的人氣，之後他們比較這些片子實際產生的收益。
"They appeared to match very well, meaning the calculations could provide a fairly good prediction of how successful a movie could be even before it is released," said a statement from the Institute of Physics, which published the paper in the Journal of Physics.
「它們似乎非常相符，意即這些統計甚至在電影上映前就可以對賣座情形提供相當好的預測，」該大學物理研究所聲明說，物研所將論文發表於期刊「物理學」上。
The team hopes to apply its model to other commercial markets such as online music, food snacks, soft drinks and event organising.
該團隊希望將其模式應用到其他商業市場，比如線上音樂、零食食品、無酒精飲料以及活動籌辦上。
Lead author Akira Ishii told AFP a key benefit of the formula was that it enabled a company to determine the best time it should spend its advertising dollars. "I think our model is very general. It will work in other countries as well," the physicist said. （AFP）
首要撰文者石井晃告訴法新社說，該公式的一個關鍵好處，就是能夠讓一個公司決定投下廣告資金的最佳時機。「我認為我們的模式是非常普遍的，它也將在其他國家運用，」他說。（法新社）
資料來源：自由時報電子報
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